Tightening visa refusal thresholds: how universities can stay compliant with Home Office rules

Guidance for UK universities on meeting new stricter Student Visa refusal thresholds and safeguarding their sponsor licences in 2025.

Tougher conditions for international students

The UK Government is introducing changes to reduce the number of student visas as part of its wider agenda to cut net migration, as set out in the White Paper published in May 2025.

Previously, universities had to meet the following Basic Compliance Assessment criteria:

• A visa refusal rate of less than 10%.
• A course enrolment rate of at least 90%.
• A course completion rate of at least 85%.

The upcoming changes will adjust these by 5%:

• A visa refusal rate of less than 5%.
• A course enrolment rate of at least 95%.
• A course completion rate of at least 90%s

This means that universities are likely to become less willing to offer places to students from “high-risk” countries (those with higher visa refusal rates and worse enrolment and completion percentages), regardless of how strong the individual applicant may be. This demonstrates the increasing challenge faced by universities of balancing the need for desirable applicants on the one hand with their duty to avoid discrimination on the other. The reasons for visa refusals are also varied and may well be outside a university’s ability to mitigate against.

In addition, the Home Office have increased pressure on existing Student Visa holders. Those approaching the end of their visas have been receiving repeated text messages and emails threatening deportation if they overstay.

This increased pressure and anti-immigration rhetoric has had a notable impact on the number of applications from international students. August 2025 saw 120,000 applications submitted by international students, a 1.5% drop compared to the same time last year and an 18% decrease from August 2023. This is undoubtably disappointing for UK universities, who may have been expecting an increase in applications following Donald Trump’s threats to cut funding and revoke student visas for leading US universities such as Harvard and Columbia.

This trend is also concerning for universities because they rely on international students to offset the pressures caused by low levels of funding. International students contributed over £12 billion in tuition fees in 2022/23, and with forecasts that 4 in 10 UK universities will be in financial deficit, universities will have to find new ways to cover the shortfall in their funding.

Early examples of radical changes implemented by universities in order to survive the difficult financial climate can be seen in the announcement made by the University of Greenwich and University of Kent of their plan to merge and form a “Super University” in 2026. This joint institution will aim to have a “strong financial foundation to weather current and future economic challenges”, with an expectation that other higher education providers will follow suit. Whilst the merger of these universities captured the headlines, the University of Kent has also announced plans to phase out courses such as journalism and philosophy, and has offered voluntary redundancy to its staff. Other struggling universities have also rolled back on courses and their staff headcount, which is a further sign of the deteriorating financial situation within the Higher Education Sector.

Why the change

Whilst the Home Office acknowledge the importance of international students, they believe the changes in the rules are necessary, stating “we are tightening the rules to ensure those coming here are genuine students and education providers take their responsibilities seriously”.

The Home Office have raised a number of points to justify these changes:

• They emphasise that prior to COVID-19, the number of sponsored student visas was between 200,000 and 269,000 per year. June 2023 saw a jump to 498,000 student visas being granted (although this can at least in part be explained by the low levels of students coming during the pandemic in the years immediately prior to 2023).
• The percentage of visas for universities ranked globally between 601–1,200 has increased by 49% whilst dropping by 7% percent for applications to top 100 universities.
• There has been an alleged increase in the number of students going on to claim asylum.
• Only 30 percent of graduates have confirmed that they work in roles which correspond to level RFQ 6 or above (graduate level jobs).

The White Paper predicted that by making the Student Visa route more competitive the Government will be able to make progress with their goal of curbing immigration. The Home Office are placing some of the responsibility for this task onto the sponsors, stating “the education providers responsible for offering places to these students must treat their roles as recruiting sponsors with the diligence and seriousness that those roles demand”.

How universities can stay compliant?

Following the tightening of restrictions on Student Visa applications, higher education providers willing to sponsor international students should take extra care throughout the entire process.

Universities should pay particular attention to:

• Ensuring that all details of the Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) are correct.
• Ensuring that international students are attending and engaging with their studies.
• Reporting any changes of student’s circumstances on the SMS.

Universities should ensure that there is thorough management at every step of the process to reduce the risk of failed applications and visa revocations, and to increase their chances of passing the Basic Compliance Assessment.

How Gherson can assist

Gherson’s Immigration Team are highly experienced in advising on all UK visa matters. If you have any questions arising from this blog, please do not hesitate to contact us for advice, send us an e-mail, or, alternatively, follow us on X, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn to stay-up-to-date.

The information in this blog is for general information purposes only and does not purport to be comprehensive or to provide legal advice. Whilst every effort is made to ensure the information and law is current as of the date of publication it should be stressed that, due to the passage of time, this does not necessarily reflect the present legal position. Gherson accepts no responsibility for loss which may arise from accessing or reliance on information contained in this blog. For formal advice on the current law please do not hesitate to contact Gherson. Legal advice is only provided pursuant to a written agreement, identified as such, and signed by the client and by or on behalf of Gherson.

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